SPR B's distribution covers less than one-third of the species' ecoregions, and an even lower proportion of its coral reef area. Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Mechanisms (Factor D). Coral Disease (Factor C). 1). The draft Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b) underwent independent peer review by reef coral experts as required by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (M-05-03; December 16, 2004). Its range includes some remote areas with small or no human populations, including most of the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean, and parts of eastern Indonesia, the northern GBR, and the Kimberley Coast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean, and many others (Smith 2019b, Fig. Of the 68 countries, 23 (34 percent) have laws that regulate pollution of coral reef waters. All 20 signed the Paris Agreement; however, in 2017, the US announced its withdrawal, to take effect in November 2020. Direct effects include entanglement, abrasion, and breakage by fishing line and other gear where fishing pressure is high, such as in the main Hawaiian Islands (Asoh et al. The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms is an important influence on the threats, and thus is also described in this section. The OFR/GPO partnership is committed to presenting accurate and reliable Giraffes are in serious trouble. The IPCC is currently compiling its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), due to be published in 2021 or 2022 (Smith 2019a). Not to be confused with Cnidrion, an enemy that spawns in the Desert. But it faces multiple global and local threats, all of which are worsening, and existing regulatory mechanisms are inadequate to ameliorate the major threats. We conclude that P. meandrina' s overall abundance is very high, but its overall abundance trend is unknown. SPR B's strong demographic factors moderate all threats, but the gradual worsening of threats is expected to result in a steady increase in extinction risk throughout the 21st century (Smith 2019b). The most important factors influencing P. meandrina' s productivity (reproduction, dispersal, recruitment, Start Printed Page 40488growth, and adaptability) provide a qualitative indication of its productivity. In addition, five lesser global and local threats are also described (changes in ocean circulation, changes in tropical storms, human-induced physical damage, invasive species, and changes in salinity). Of the 68 countries, nearly all have managed areas that include coral reefs. The available information does not indicate that the capacity for recovery of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals has substantially declined. Despite increasing disturbance, decreasing recovery times, and decreasing coral cover, the available information suggests that overall resilience of Indo-Pacific reef-building corals remains quite high because: (1) Observed impacts of disturbances on corals have been spatially highly variable due to habitat heterogeneity; (2) factors that confer resilience (high habitat heterogeneity, large ecosystem size, high coral and reef fish species diversity) have not declined; (3) observed responses of corals to disturbances indicate that most either recovered or were resistant; and (4) observed responses of corals to disturbances indicate that phase shifts have so far been either rare or reversed. Therefore, based on the best available information provided above, we consider SPR D's overall abundance to be high, but its overall abundance trend is unknown (Table 4). The interactions of threats were also rated as posing increased risk to P. meandrina in both the draft and final ratings (Table 2). Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean, thus warming of the ocean lags behind warming of air at the earth's surface. is the phylum of animals that contains corals, jellyfish (sea jellies), sea anemones, sea pens, and hydrozoans. Indo-Pacific reef-building corals occur on shallow coral reefs (<30 m depth), as well as in non-reef and mesophotic areas (>30 m depth), in the tropical and sub-tropical waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including the eastern Pacific. The ranges of projected warming Start Printed Page 40483under the three RCPs overlap with one another, illustrating the high variability in the projections (NMFS 2020a, Fig. Distribution and abundance strongly influence a population's productivity and diversity (see SRR, Sections 3.3 and 3.4), thus SPR D likely contains approximately 14 to 20 percent of P. meandrina' s total productivity and diversity. 1), especially in the late 21st century (NMFS 2020a, Fig. However, the relative abundances of P. meandrina in SPR A's ecoregions are mostly uncommon, unlike the central Pacific where it is common or dominant. 2017) diversity within portions of individual ecoregions. Exposure to both threats is expected to increase throughout the foreseeable future. 2; NMFS 2020b). Exposure of colonies of P. meandrina to predation depends on predator abundances. Earthworm Thus, the susceptibility of P. meandrina to predation is moderate (Smith 2019b). Phenotypic diversity can be maintained by spatial and temporal variation in habitat characteristics, because variable environmental factors result in the expression of different phenotypes. Although all threats are projected to worsen within SPR B's range over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the following characteristics of the population moderate its extinction risk, summarized from information in the SRR (Smith 2019b), NMFS (2020b), and the SPR B component of the Extinction Risk Assessments of the SPRs section above: (1) Its large geographic distribution (27 ecoregions, 35,000 km2 of reef area, extensive non-reef and mesophotic habitats; NMFS 2020b), broad depth distribution (0-34 m; NMFS 2020b), and wide habitat breadth (SRR, Section 2.4), provide SPR B high habitat heterogeneity (SRR, section 3.4), which creates patchiness of conditions across its range at any given time, thus many portions of its range are unaffected or lightly affected by any given threat; (2) its high abundance (at least several billion colonies; NMFS 2020b), together with high habitat heterogeneity, likely result in billions of colonies surviving even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high mortality occurs, its high productivity provides the capacity for the affected populations to recover quickly, as has been documented at sites within several ecoregions (e.g., at Fagatele Bay in American Samoa, at the Kahe Power Plant in the main Hawaiian Islands, and at Moorea in the Society Islands; SRR, Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its high productivity provides the capacity for populations to recover relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more sensitive reef coral species, allowing SPR B to take over denuded substrates and to sometimes become more abundant after disturbances than before them, as has been documented in some of SPR B's ecoregions (SRR, Section 3.3); (5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most other Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities on the metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in some sub-populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less mortality (e.g., Oahu, main Hawaiian Islands, SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting acclimatization or adaptation of the surviving populations; and (7) adaptation may be enhanced by its high genotypic diversity (SRR, Start Printed Page 40505Section 3.3) and high dispersal (SRR, Section 3.4). After reviewing the best scientific and commercial data available, including the General Status Review of Indo-Pacific Reef-building Corals and the P. meandrina Status Review Report, we have determined that listing P. meandrina as threatened or endangered based on its status throughout all or a significant portion of its range under the ESA is not warranted at this time. The draft, final, and mean extinction risk ratings are shown in Table 3 below.Start Printed Page 40495, Table 3Draft, Final, and Mean Results of the 7-Member ERA Team's Ratings of P. meandrina' s Overall Extinction Risk Under RCP8.5 Over the Foreseeable Future. Skeletons are cleaned and sold as curios or decorations, and colonies of Acropora and Pocillopora species are especially popular in many countries. The application of these two policy considerations to the P. meandrina finding are described below. However, the trends in disturbance, recovery time, and coral cover are projected to worsen with climate change, thus overall resilience is also projected to decrease throughout the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b). Like many branching coral species, P. meandrina has high skeletal growth rates relative to most other Indo-Pacific reef-building coral species (Jokiel and Tyler 1992). Therefore, these 95 ecoregions are considered to be the current, known range of P. meandrina. More information and documentation can be found in our However, this population includes all seven ecoregions where P. meandrina is dominant, and the species is dominant or common in 14 of the population's 19 ecoregions. informational resource until the Administrative Committee of the Federal The geographic distribution of P. meandrina encompasses >230 longitude and 60 latitude, and includes 95 of the 133 Indo-Pacific ecoregions, giving it a larger range than about two-thirds Indo-Pacific reef-building coral species. For many reef-building coral species, including P. meandrina, an increase of only 1 C-2 C above the normal local seasonal maximum ocean temperature can induce bleaching. Although there is little information available on the genotypic and phenotypic diversity of SPR A, its large distribution and high habitat heterogeneity suggest that both types of diversity are high for this population. We expect vulnerability of P. meandrina to ocean warming to increase throughout the foreseeable future as climate change worsens, resulting in higher frequency, severity, and magnitude of warming-induced bleaching events (Smith 2019a,b, NMFS 2020a). Autotrophic feeding is accomplished via symbiosis with unicellular photosynthetic algae living within the host coral's tissues (zooxanthellae). These papers illustrate that the overall projected trends are sharply downward under all three RCPs in terms of ocean warming impacts on Indo-Pacific reef-building corals. 3d. Furthermore, since the frequency of disturbance is projected to increase as climate change worsens, recovery time is projected to continue to decrease throughout the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b). Section 3 of the ESA defines an endangered species as any species which is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range, and a threatened species as one which is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. While broadly deteriorating conditions will likely result in a downward trajectory of SPR B's overall abundance in the foreseeable future, the demographic characteristics summarized above are expected to allow the population to at least partially recover from many disturbances, thereby slowing the downward trajectory. Much of the information discussed below on the species' biology, distribution, abundance, threats, and extinction risk is presented in the Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b). GMST refers to the mean of land and sea temperatures observed at the earth's surface. Even though SPR D represents less than one-quarter of P. meandrina' s ecoregions, the following characteristics of the population are especially valuable for maintaining the species' viability as threats worsen throughout the 21st century: (1) It contains all ecoregions where P. meandrina is dominant; (2) it provides a link to between the species' isolated ecoregions in the eastern Pacific to the bulk of its ecoregions in the western Pacific; and (3) it contains a high proportion of islands and atolls with small or no human populations (NMFS 2020b) where local threats are likely to be relatively low in the foreseeable future, and thus may provide refuges for maintaining the species' resilience as conditions deteriorate. Based on the information in the SRR, we consider SPR D's productivity to be high, despite declining abundance trends in some ecoregions. In addition, these habitats are exposed to a great deal of temporal variation in conditions on diurnal, lunar, seasonal, and decadal timescales. Webthis article is out of date, the cnidarian is now a summon weapon. That is, we expect its extinction risk to increase slightly from its current low level, to low to moderate in the foreseeable future, in response to worsening threats. As described in the GSA (Smith 2019a), the available information regarding fishing and Indo-Pacific reef-building corals including P. meandrina leads to the following conclusions about this threat: (1) Direct effects of fishing, namely damage from fishing gears and methods used in food fish and marine aquarium fisheries, have been observed in much of the Indo-Pacific; (2) indirect effects, or the trophic effects of fishing, have not been observed in the Indo-Pacific as they have in the Caribbean; and (3) both direct and indirect effects of fishing are projected to increase in the Indo-Pacific throughout the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a). A Notice by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 07/06/2020. Therefore, SPR B is significant to the viability of P. meandrina and qualifies as an SPR. SPR D. SPR D's distribution consists of P. meandrina' s Ecoregions #69-87. However, as described in the GSA and summarized above, several factors suggest that P. meandrina' s exposure to ocean warming is already quite high, and rapidly increasing. The various pathways were developed with the intent of providing different potential climate change projections to guide policy discussions. We estimate P. meandrina' s total population to be at least several tens of billions of colonies (Smith 2019b, Section 3.2.2), but SPR B includes only about 15 percent of the species' coral reef area (Table 4, NMFS 2020b). The worst threats to P. meandrina include those caused by global climate change (ocean warming and ocean acidification), and the Team unanimously agreed that these threats stem from the inadequacy of regulatory mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions management. Foreseeable Future Conclusion. We consider the current vulnerabilities of P. meandrina to human-induced physical damage, invasive species, and changes in salinity to be very low to low, based on low susceptibilities combined with very low exposures. 2018). That is, the foreseeability of a species' future status is case specific and depends upon both the foreseeability of threats to the species and foreseeability of the species' response to those threats. Unlike most other reef corals, typical colonies of P. meandrina stop growing at around 40 cm (16 in) in diameter, and the species has a relatively short life span compared to other corals (Coles and Brown 2007). This PDF is In order to determine the extinction risk of species being considered for ESA listing, NMFS uses a demographic risk analysis framework that considers the four demographic factors of distribution, abundance, productivity, and diversity (NMFS 2017). While P. meandrina is most commonly found in shallow, high-energy habitats such as reef crests and shallow forereefs, its depth distribution extends from the surface to at least 34 m (112 ft). WebWWF is committed to saving endangered species. The total annual harvest of P. meandrina for the ornamental industry is not likely to be more than a few hundreds of thousands to a few million colonies. The demographic risk assessment utilized the information provided in the SRR (Smith 2019b) on P. meandrina' s four demographic risk factors of distribution, abundance, productivity, and diversity. Its range includes many remote areas with small or no human populations, including the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the Line Islands, and the Tuamotu Archipelago, and others (Smith 2019b, Fig. Cal., 2018). We also announced the initiation of a status review of the species, as required by section 4(b)(3)(a) of the ESA, and requested information to inform the agency's decision on whether this species warrants listing as endangered or threatened under the ESA. Species at Moderate extinction risk are on a trajectory that puts them at a high level of extinction risk in the foreseeable future, due to projected threats or declining trends in distribution, abundance, productivity, or diversity. Species at Moderate extinction risk are on a trajectory that puts them at a high level of extinction risk in the foreseeable future, due to projected threats or declining trends in distribution, abundance, productivity, or diversity. However, the vulnerability of SPR D to climate change threats (ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea-level rise) are likely similar as for P. meandrina rangewide. corresponding official PDF file on govinfo.gov. It is a very common species in many of the Pocillopora-dominated reef coral communities of the central Pacific. The population has life history characteristics that provide resilience to disturbances and a high capacity for recovery. IUCN Red List Numerous wildlife organizations monitor wild animal populations in order to identify species that are in danger of becoming extinct. These are not considered primary threats because they are either uncertain (the global threats) or highly localized on small spatial scales (the local threats). The ERA was conducted assuming that conditions projected under RCP8.5 will occur within the range of P. meandrina over the foreseeable future. Although all threats are projected to worsen within SPR D's range over the foreseeable future (Smith 2019a,b; NMFS 2020a), the following characteristics of the population moderate its extinction risk, summarized from information in the SRR (Smith 2019b), NMFS (2020b), and the SPR D component of the Extinction Risk Assessments of the SPRs section above: (1) Its large geographic distribution (19 ecoregions, 32,000 km2 of reef area, extensive non-reef and mesophotic habitats; NMFS 2020b), broad depth distribution (0-34 m; NMFS 2020b), and wide habitat breadth (SRR, Section 2.4), provide SPR D high habitat heterogeneity (SRR, section 3.4), which creates patchiness of conditions across its range at any given time, thus many portions of its range are unaffected or lightly affected by any given threat; (2) its high abundance (at least several billion colonies; NMFS 2020b), together with high habitat heterogeneity, likely result in billions of colonies surviving even the worst disturbances; (3) even when high mortality occurs, its high productivity provides the capacity for the affected populations to recover quickly, as has been documented at sites within several ecoregions (e.g., at Fagatele Bay in American Samoa, at the Kahe Power Plant in the main Hawaiian Islands, and at Moorea in the Society Islands; SRR, Section 3.2.3); (4) likewise, its high productivity provides the capacity for populations to recover relatively quickly from disturbances compared to more sensitive reef coral species, allowing SPR D to take over denuded substrates and to sometimes become more abundant after disturbances than before them, as has been documented in some of SPR D's ecoregions (SRR, Section Start Printed Page 405063.3); (5) it recruits to artificial substrates more readily than most other Indo-Pacific reef corals, often dominating the coral communities on the metal, concrete, and PVC surfaces of seawalls, Fish Aggregation Devices, pipes, and other manmade structures (SRR, Section 3.3); (6) in some sub-populations that suffered high mortality from warming-induced bleaching, subsequent warming resulted in less mortality (e.g., Oahu, main Hawaiian Islands, SRR, Section 4.1), suggesting acclimatization or adaptation of the surviving populations; and (7) adaptation may be enhanced by its high genotypic diversity (SRR, Section 3.3) and high dispersal (SRR, Section 3.4). Genotypic diversity is defined as the numbers of genotypes present in a population. ), also limiting exposure. daily Federal Register on FederalRegister.gov will remain an unofficial The extinction risk of P. meandrina now and in the immediate future depends on the impacts of threats resulting from the continuation of ongoing climate change. Recruitment of P. meandrina has been studied in Hawai`i, where it has been shown to be the most successful coral species at colonizing new substrates, such as fresh lava flows on the Big Island (Grigg and Maragos 1974). The extinction risk of SPR D depends on its demographic factors and threats. Genus-level surveys of warming-induced bleaching susceptibility have found that Pocillopora species can be among the more susceptible of reef-building corals. 16 U.S.C. Thus, this section provides an overview of global climate change and existing guidance, a description of the climate change status quo, the rationale for our determination of the length of the foreseeable future for the most important threats to P. meandrina (ocean warming and ocean acidification), and descriptions of the impacts of those threats on the species over the foreseeable future. Based on the available information, we cannot distinguish the likely responses of P. meandrina to projected ocean acidification under the three RCPs from one another because: (1) All three RCPs project worsening ocean acidification and reduced arg levels over the 21st century (NMFS 2020a, Fig. Fishing regulations that pertain to reefs, include regulations that prohibit explosives, poisons and chemicals, electrocution, spearfishing, specific mesh sizes of nets, or other fishing gear. Interactions of Threats (Factor E). Register, and does not replace the official print version or the official Since SPR A includes approximately 85 percent of the range of P. meandrina in terms of coral reef area (Table 4), the threats to SPR A are similar as to the entire species, thus the threat vulnerability ratings are applicable to SPR A. Based on the information provided in the Status Review reports (Smith 2019a,b), an Extinction Risk Assessment (ERA) was carried out as specified in the Guidance on Responding to Petitions and Conducting Status Reviews under the Endangered Species Act (NMFS 2017). An analysis of likely disease outbreaks in reef-building corals resulting from ocean warming projected by RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 concluded that both pathways are likely to cause sharply increased coral disease before 2100 (Maynard et al. The peer reviewers were asked to evaluate the adequacy, appropriateness, and application of data used in the Status Review reports, including the Extinction Risk Assessment methodology. Likewise, since P. meandrina populations are distributed throughout a large range with environmental conditions that vary by latitude, longitude, proximity to land, etc., the populations must have substantial capacity for adaptation to the natural variability in environmental conditions across their ranges (Smith 2019a,b). The spatial scale is the 95 ecoregions that make up the current range of P. meandrina (Fig. However, SPR A faces multiple threats, the worst of which are expected to increase in the foreseeable future (NMFS 2020a, Smith 2019a). Federal Register provide legal notice to the public and judicial notice Cnidaria is a diverse phylum which includes corals, jellyfish, and other aquatic critters with stinging cells called nematocysts. 2); (2) the ranges of warming projected by each RCP are broad and overlapping with one another (NMFS 2020a, Fig. Taxonomic uncertainty appears to be lower for P. meandrina than some other Pocillopora species, and available information supports the conclusion that P. meandrina is a valid species. For each threat, vulnerability is a function of susceptibility and exposure. The Moderate extinction risk category received 26.5 points (37.9 percent) in the draft rating, and 39.5 points (56.4 percent) in the final rating, for a mean of 33 points (47.1 percent; Table 3). For example, in a transect from 8 m (26 ft) to 36 m (118 ft) depth on Fanning Island in Kiribati surveyed in the early 1970s, colonies of P. meandrina were recorded at 31 m (102 ft) and 34 m (112 ft). Diversity. The likelihood point method allows expression of uncertainty by Team members (NMFS 2017). Although SPR B only includes approximately 15 percent of the range of P. meandrina, it nevertheless covers approximately 35,000 km2 of reef area, and extensive non-reef and mesophotic habitats (NMFS 2020b). We consider the current vulnerability of P. meandrina to LBSP to be low to moderate, based on moderate overall susceptibility combined with low overall exposure.